Here's something odd: Consumer spending is drifting upward, raising hopes for an economic recovery. Yet the unemployment rate is spiking like a scary fever, with jobs more scarce than at any time since the 1930s.

    Does this make sense? Where are unemployed consumers getting the money to buy new stuff? Are we so addicted to spending that we're forking over every last dime to get that doorbuster special?

    Doubtful. The answers aren't sitting there in the usual statistics, but some educated guesswork might help explain who's spending and who isn't-while exposing a myth or two about the so-called recovery. The latest data shows that consumer spending rose 0.7 percent in October, while incomes rose just 0.2 percent. Since spending went up by more than income, that suggests consumers must be drawing down their savings to buy stuff.

    But hold on-the saving rate fell by just a tiny fraction in the latest data, and in general it's been going up all year. So if people are spending more, it must be coming from somewhere other than a boost in income or a drawdown in savings. Household debt has been going down too, so consumers aren't financing new purchases by taking out loans or driving up their credit-card balances. The only other explanation would be a boost in people's assets that is providing an extra pool of cash for purchases.

    Housing, the biggest asset for most families, is still falling in value in most areas. But look at that stock market! Up 23 percent for the year and 65 percent or so since it hit bottom in March. That has replaced lost wealth for some consumers and, presumably, made them more comfortable spending money.

    The other big beneficiaries of the bull market are wealthy and upper-middle-income Americans with spare money to invest and plenty of savings set aside if they lose their jobs or have other problems. And the numbers suggest that affluent consumers are indeed the ones who feel like a recovery is at hand-a stock-market recovery, that is. They're probably the ones who are actually spending more. Maybe the only ones.

    The usual economic data doesn't break down spending by income category. But wealthy consumers buy a disproportionate share of stuff, so it makes sense that any rise in spending could be attributed largely or entirely to them. The top 10 percent of earners account for 22 percent of all spending, for instance, according to Moody's Economy.com. The top 25 percent of all earners account for 45 percent of spending. The bottom 50 percent of earners, by contrast, spend just 29 percent of all the money in the consumer economy.

    有一些蹊蹺：消費(fèi)指數(shù)直線彪升，漲勢好像預(yù)示了經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。然而失業(yè)指數(shù)還是高熱不消，目前是至1930年以來失業(yè)率最高的。

    失業(yè)人群用來消費(fèi)的錢是哪里來的？我們是不是在花我們手里最后的10美分？

    懷疑。答案并不能在指數(shù)上看到，但是許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可以幫助我們解釋，誰花錢了，誰沒有-暴露關(guān)于復(fù)蘇的神話。最后的數(shù)據(jù)顯示在10月消費(fèi)指數(shù)上升0.7%,收入增加0.2%.可看出花費(fèi)多于收入。有專家建議，消費(fèi)者應(yīng)該控制他們的花費(fèi)。

    繼續(xù)-存款漏洞在這一年中不段擴(kuò)大，如果人們消費(fèi)更多，就因該可以從更多的方面得到收入。一家人的債務(wù)現(xiàn)在正在下降，所以消費(fèi)者們的新消費(fèi)目標(biāo)可以使他們的信用卡和借貸保持平衡。

    另一個(gè)對(duì)于消費(fèi)者來說的利益并是美國給那些消費(fèi)高的客戶提供了保險(xiǎn)，以防止他們?nèi)f一失業(yè)或者遇到其他的困難。消費(fèi)者還是認(rèn)識(shí)目前經(jīng)濟(jì)正在復(fù)蘇。

    但是富有的消費(fèi)者以及不平衡的消費(fèi)指數(shù)，這將導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)危機(jī)的出現(xiàn)。根據(jù)Moody的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析，前10%的消費(fèi)者，花費(fèi)了近的22%,前25%的消費(fèi)者，花費(fèi)了45%,在最后的50%的消費(fèi)著僅花費(fèi)了29%.