How we perceive the future of our Earth may depend on an individual's view of nature and on their own human nature.

    我們對(duì)地球未來(lái)的認(rèn)知可能依賴于個(gè)體對(duì)自然的觀點(diǎn)以及個(gè)體自身的人文觀點(diǎn)。

    Global Warming Beliefs

    Here's one of the confusing issues regarding global warming: After all the data we've collected so far how can we still have such wide variety in outlooks for our future?

    Well Mark Maslin, director of the Environment Institute at the University College London and his colleague John Adams proposed one theory.

    They believe that human opinion can be explained by how we respond to risk and uncertainty.

    In reference to global warming beliefs, they combine four possible myths of nature with four myths of human nature. Myth is their term-you can also think of them as belief or opinion.

    Here they are:

    1） Nature is benign: Earth is predictable and robust, able to withstand or bounce back from any damage. This view corresponds with what they call individualists, entrepreneurial types who don't necessarily believe in control or intervention from others. Maslin uses the example of self-made oil barons.

    2） Nature is ephemeral: Earth is fragile and it is in danger of collapse. And this view is held by egalitarians, people who have strong democratic group loyalties but do not respect externally imposed rules. Radical environmentalists might fall into this category.

    3） Nature is tolerant: Earth can handle some changes, but major excesses will send it reeling. This is a view held by hierarchists, people who know their place, and adhere to strong social structures. Scientists or soldiers might be examples.

    4） Nature is capricious: Earth's reactions are so unpredictable that we cannot predict nor accurately plan our future. This is the view of fatalists, those who feel they have little control over their lives.

    From this framework, Maslin says we can tell which person is likely to believe which view of nature. And this is one way to look at why there are so many responses to the threat of global warming, despite us all having access to the same information.

    對(duì)全球變暖的不同觀點(diǎn)

    本期涉及到對(duì)全球變暖的各種不同觀點(diǎn)：到目前為止，在我們收集到了所有的信息后，我們?yōu)槭裁慈匀粚?duì)我們地球的未來(lái)持如此不同的觀點(diǎn)？

    倫敦大學(xué)學(xué)院環(huán)境研究所（Environment Institute at the University College London）的主任Mark Maslin和他的同事John Adams提出了一種理論。

    他們認(rèn)為，人們的觀點(diǎn)可以用我們?nèi)绾螌?duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定做出反應(yīng)來(lái)解釋。

    就全球變暖的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)看，他們把自然的4種"神話"和人類的四種"神話"結(jié)合起來(lái)。"神話"是他們用到的術(shù)語(yǔ)---你也可以把它們認(rèn)為是信仰或者觀點(diǎn)。

    它們分別如下：

    1）自然是友好的：地球可以預(yù)測(cè)并且堅(jiān)固，能抵抗任何破壞或者從破壞中恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)。這種觀點(diǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)于他們所稱為的"個(gè)人主義者",他們是一類富于創(chuàng)造的人，不相信別人的控制或者干涉。Maslin以白手起家的石油大亨作為這類人的例子。

    2）自然是短暫的：地球很脆弱，而且處于崩潰的危險(xiǎn)中。平等主義者持有這種觀點(diǎn)。平等主義者具有強(qiáng)烈的民主集體忠誠(chéng)，但是不遵從外加的統(tǒng)治。極端環(huán)保主義者可能歸屬于這一類。

    3）自然具有耐受性：地球能應(yīng)對(duì)一些變化，但是過(guò)度的改變將使地球難以承受。等級(jí)主義者持這種觀點(diǎn)。等級(jí)主義者知道他們?cè)谏鐣?huì)上的位置，能遵從森嚴(yán)的社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)。科學(xué)家或者士兵可能屬于這類人。

    4）自然不可捉摸：地球的反應(yīng)如此不可預(yù)測(cè)，因此我們既不能預(yù)測(cè)也不能準(zhǔn)確地籌劃我們的未來(lái)。這是宿命論者的觀點(diǎn)。宿命論者認(rèn)為他們對(duì)生活幾乎沒(méi)有控制力。

    根據(jù)這種理論框架，Maslin說(shuō)我們能說(shuō)出哪類人很可能持有哪類自然觀點(diǎn)。這是一種方法來(lái)解釋為什么盡管我們所獲得的信息是一樣的，而我們對(duì)全球變暖的威脅會(huì)有如此多的反應(yīng)。

    Vocabulary:

    Perceive:認(rèn)知；感知

    Individual:個(gè)體的；個(gè)人的

    Confuse: 混淆的；混亂的

    Variety: 變化

    Propose: 提議

    Uncertainty: 不確定

    Myth: 神話

    Benign: 有好的

    Predictable: 可預(yù)測(cè)的

    Robust: 強(qiáng)勁的；堅(jiān)固的

    Withstand: 抵抗

    Individualist: 個(gè)人主義者

    Entrepreneurial: 創(chuàng)業(yè)的

    Intervention: 干涉

    Baron: 大亨

    Ephemeral: 短暫的

    Fragile: 脆弱的

    Collapse: 坍塌；崩潰

    Egalitarian: 平等主義者

    Category: 類別

    Tolerant: 寬容的；能在困難條件下生存的

    Excess: 過(guò)度

    Reel: 感到震驚；仿佛天旋地轉(zhuǎn)

    Hierarchist: 等級(jí)主義者

    Capricious: 變幻莫測(cè)的；

    Accurately: 精確地

    Fatalist: 宿命論者

    Have access to: 有機(jī)會(huì)、權(quán)利